Peace and Security

Nobody knew: An unplanned attack on Iran would go poorly.

As of September 29 2026, the Iran war has become a prolonged stalemate. Trump’s approval has fallen to a new low. Only 31% of Americans support the war. U.S. military readiness is flagging. Iran still retains significant missile capabilities and can be quite clever with hybrid effort. Qatar and other intermediaries press to restart negotiations. Their diplomatic efforts remain stalled.

Bombing runs aren’t productive. The U.S. is hoping economic pressure is more effective. Then, of course, the commander says he might annihilate Iran.

Trump’s team of amateur negotiators (Trump, Rubio, Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner) has some options for getting out of the war without admitting to a screw up.

Peace and Negotiations

Iran has suggested a return to the June memorandum of understanding. Iran seeks sanctions relief and changes regarding the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump rejects returning to the previous arrangement. This stalemate strains hope for peace.

There are diplomatic channels available. However, can Trump craft a deal that looks like Peace to his supporters while meeting Iran’s needs for acceptance? That’s the diplomatic puzzle. Ironically, the longer the stalemate lasts, the easier it is to argue that circumstances required the change.

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