Project 2025 has the US lurching into a military / police state. We have ICE thugs running rampant here in Chicago, using tear gas and pepper balls to intimidate peaceful protesters. These protesters are not happy with their friends and neighbors being rounded up, hand-cuffed and detained. Trump and Hegseth are blowing up boats that “look” suspicious, usually killing all aboard, without evidence or congressional approval.

History shows that regimes or empires that rely primarily on force, rather than legitimacy, economic strength, and shared values usually get overthrown or collapse over time. Military power alone is rarely permanent.

How Power Collapses

Loss of legitimacy:
People tend to accept military control during crises, but during gas-lit crisis like our current imagined invasion (from “within”), maybe not. Without public trust, power erodes from within. How does one invade from within?

Economic limits:
The military is very, very expensive. Empires like Rome and the Soviet Union eventually collapsed from the massive cost of their militaries.

The cost of two recently lost U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet jets that fell into the ocean from the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier was approximately $60 million to $70 million each, for a combined total of over $120 million.  The $13 Billion aircraft carrier, Gerald R. Ford is currently heading to the Caribbean near Venezuela as part of a U.S. military buildup in the region.

Resistance:
Coercion breeds opposition, at home and abroad. Guerrilla movements, civil resistance, or international isolation can weaken even the most powerful militaries. Hopefully we won’t need Che and the Castro brothers.

Alternatives to Guns and Bombs

Many new ideas start in the United States because of a unique mix of cultural, economic, and institutional factors:

Culture of innovation and risk-taking. Americans are encouraged to experiment, question norms, and accept failure as part of learning.

Strong education and research institutions: Four thousand universities and prior to the Trump Administration, research institutions received large public and private funding, to chase discoveries.

Access to capital: Venture capital and entrepreneurial networks make it easier to fund startups and new technologies.

Diverse population: Immigration and cultural diversity bring different perspectives and problem-solving approaches. Despite the be-nighted rhetoric of Trump and his mentor Stephen Miller.

Supportive legal framework: Strong intellectual property laws and business-friendly regulations protect inventors and encourage entrepreneurship.

Large, open market: A big consumer base allows new ideas to be tested and scaled quickly.

Government and military investment – Federal funding (like NASA, DARPA, NIH) has historically driven breakthroughs later adapted for civilian use. DOGE laid waste and Russ Vought is continuing.

Soft power has been the United States’ greatest long-term advantage because it draws others in rather than pushing them away. Military and economic strength can compel compliance but soft power inspires cooperation, in ways that outlast any single administration or conflict. The U.S. ability to lead through ideas, innovation, and inclusion has been its most lasting source of global power.

But:

USAID was a primary example of how the US used aid and development to extend influence through attraction rather than coercion. Most of USAID’s funding was delivered as grants to governments, NGOs, universities, and contractors for specific development or humanitarian projects. These were non-repayable funds, meant to build capacity, deliver services, or respond to crises. Example: a USAID grant to improve maternal health in Kenya or to strengthen election monitoring in Ukraine.

China’s “aid” is often financial, but mostly through loans rather than gifts. It’s a key part of its global Belt and Road strategy to build influence and secure economic and political partnerships and in some cases crushing debt.

USAID was officially shut down in July 2025, and its remaining operations were transferred to the State Department.