HardSchell Report

Our Options

Option #1: 25^th Amendment (Section 4)

• For Section 4 to be invoked, the Vice President plus a majority of Cabinet must declare the President “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
• The key bottleneck is getting the Cabinet to act.
• Given that most Cabinet secretaries are loyal to Trump, it is unlikely that a majority would turn on Trump. The political cost for any Cabinet member to sign such a declaration would be enormous.
• The President can dispute the 25th, and Congress would have to decide.
• Because of the tight party alignment and loyalty incentives, the 25th route is almost impractical under current conditions.

Option #2: Impeachment and Conviction in Congress

• The House would need to pass articles of impeachment first.
• Then, to convict in the Senate, two-thirds of the Senators present need to affirm (67 senators, assuming a full Senate of 100). With only 53 Republicans, even if all Democrats + Independents join to convict, you’d have at most 47 (from opposition side) + possibly some defections from Republicans. But you would need “crossover” Republican Senators willing to vote against Trump to reach the 67 threshold.
• Getting enough Republican defections is a high bar. Even if every Democrat + Independent voted to convict (47 + 2 = 49), you’d still need 18 Republicans to defect

Option #3: Wait for the voters in 2026

2026 is pivotal: it may be the last major electoral opportunity before the power imbalance becomes harder to reverse. (Assuming we don’t have a sudden “emergency” and elections are canceled.)

Best Opportunity

• Congress
  Retaking the House could enable constraining executive overreach, through legislation, oversight, budget control, and investigations. Some forecasters already see Democrats with a “strong chance” of taking the House based on generic ballot models.
• Secretaries of state
  Beyond just Congress, control of secretaries of state (who run elections) is a strategic lever. Democrats are investing in 2026 races for secretaries of state, especially in battlegrounds.
• Rebuild norms and institutional integrity
  A Democratic majority could pass reforms (e.g. bolstering judicial checks, strengthening ethics laws, codifying constraints on executive power) and appoint judges and officials who respect institutional independence.
• Prevent entrenchment
  The longer unchecked overreach continues, the more entrenched it can become (through stacking courts, regulatory capture, rule changes). Winning in 2026 means maybe reversing before the “noose tightens.”

There are significant obstacles:

• Gerrymandering and redistricting
  The GOP is already redrawing congressional maps (e.g. in Texas) with the goal of locking in advantages and diluting Democratic power.
• Senate map disadvantage
  Democrats are defending a relatively unfavorable Senate map in 2026. According to predictions, Republicans are strongly favored to hold the Senate.  
• Messaging, unity, candidate recruitment
  Democrats must present a clear, compelling narrative and recruit strong candidates in competitive districts. Divisions or weak messaging would be fatal.
• Voter suppression
• Limited time and momentum

In Summary

Overcoming Trump’s autocratic tendencies via 2026 electoral wins is possible, but not automatic. The path is narrow and fraught. Disciplined strategy, strong candidates, restoring institutional balance, and public will, are required. If Democrats fall short, systemic distortions, like gerrymandering may make later fixes much harder.